- As a reminder, the bitcoin Accumulation Program is a process attempting to assess and communicate the attractiveness of bitcoin’s price. Basically, we are trying to determine good times to buy or add positions in bitcoin and to help understand what is happening with the price of bitcoin on a weekly basis.
The goal of this approach is to help make investors feel more comfortable with a long-term perspective when approaching a very volatile asset by providing a logic-based accumulation approach. Read our last analysis from last week here, and for more overall information on our bitcoin Accumulation Program, watch our overview video here.
What the Indicators are Telling Us This Week
- RSI: RSI (top study, blue line) indicates recently oversold conditions (RSI < 30), back to weak conditions (RSI < 40)
- Trend: The Trend Score (middle study, yellow) is quite negative
- Cycle: Currently signaling a potential bottoming process (bottom study, green line)
- Distribution Range: bitcoin Is clearly out of the multi-year uptrend defined by the range
- Retracement Ratios: Bitcoin has retraced over 50% of the advance from early 2023 to October 2025. Ratio analysis suggests support at 57,460 which is a 61.8% retracement
Chart of bitcoin ($BTC) produced by Kevin Grimes
Conclusion: Bitcoin has declined 46% from the October all-time high. Trends are very weak. The positive news is that there is evidence that a bottoming is in process. RSI signaled an oversold condition in early February with bitcoin hitting its cycle lows on 2/4/2026. Now we are getting Cycle bottoming signals (bottom study). The Cycle signal is predictive and we need to let it play out, but this is an encouraging sign after a sharp decline for bitcoin. We are moving the overall score back to Neutral (4 on a scale of 1-7). Long term investors have the opportunity to buy bitcoin at nearly half the recent high price with some signs of potential stabilization. On further evidence of a bottom or improvement in trend then we would move the score much higher.
OVERALL SCORE (1 – 7 Scale): 4 // Neutral
read Previous Bitcoin Diaries
- Bitcoin Diaries 2/6/26
- Bitcoin Diaries 1/30/26
- Bitcoin Diaries 1/23/26
- Bitcoin Diaries 1/16/26
- Bitcoin Diaries 1/9/26
- Bitcoin Diaries 12/12/25
- Bitcoin Diaries 12/5/25
- Bitcoin Diaries 11/21/25
- Bitcoin Diaries 11/14/25
- Bitcoin Diaries 11/6/25
Important Disclosures:
This Cryptocurrency article is for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Crypto is a digital currency that can be used to buy goods and services but uses an online ledger with strong cryptography (i.e., a method of protecting information and communications with codes) to secure online transactions. Unlike conventional currencies issued by a monetary authority, cryptocurrencies are generally not controlled or regulated, and their price is determined by the supply and demand of their market. Cryptocurrency is currently considered to be a speculative investment. Please Note: Investment in cryptocurrencies is subject to the potential for liquidity constraints, extreme price volatility and complete loss of principal. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this document serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Grimes. A copy of our current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at www.grimesco.com.
