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After a break during the holidays, we are back with our first 2026 installment of the Bitcoin Diaries.
As a reminder, the bitcoin Accumulation Program is a process attempting to assess and communicate the attractiveness of bitcoin’s price. Basically, we are trying to determine good times to buy or add positions in bitcoin and to help understand what is happening with the price of bitcoin on a weekly basis.
The goal of this approach is to help make investors feel more comfortable with a long-term perspective when approaching a very volatile asset by providing a logic-based accumulation approach. Read our last analysis from mid-December here, and for more overall information on our bitcoin Accumulation Program, watch our overview video here.
What the Indicators are Telling Us This Week
- Trend: The Trend Score (middle study, yellow) is negative but recovering
- Cycle: Signaled a potential bottom previously (bottom study, green line) but is currently neutral
- RSI: RSI (top study, blue line) has recovered and is in the normal range
- Distribution Range: bitcoin Is clearly out of the multi-year uptrend defined by the range
- Trading Range: bitcoin has been in a tight trading range, between 85,000 and 94,000 for seven weeks. This range is the focal point currently.
Chart of bitcoin ($BTC) produced by Kevin Grimes
Conclusion: In the short run, the last bullet point is the most important. Bitcoin has been in a very tight trading range since November. A break from this range will give a clue as to what the next move may be for bitcoin. The fact that the selloff has found support and that investors have an opportunity to buy $BTC at levels lower than a year ago warrants an improvement in the overall score to 4 – neutral. A break higher from here would give the bulls reason to feel more opportunistic, but new lows would warrant a defensive approach.
OVERALL SCORE (1 – 7 Scale): 4 // Neutral
read Previous Bitcoin Diaries
- Bitcoin Diaries 12/12/25
- Bitcoin Diaries 12/5/25
- Bitcoin Diaries 11/21/25
- Bitcoin Diaries 11/14/25
- Bitcoin Diaries 11/6/25
Important Disclosures:
This Cryptocurrency article is for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Crypto is a digital currency that can be used to buy goods and services but uses an online ledger with strong cryptography (i.e., a method of protecting information and communications with codes) to secure online transactions. Unlike conventional currencies issued by a monetary authority, cryptocurrencies are generally not controlled or regulated, and their price is determined by the supply and demand of their market. Cryptocurrency is currently considered to be a speculative investment. Please Note: Investment in cryptocurrencies is subject to the potential for liquidity constraints, extreme price volatility and complete loss of principal. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this document serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Grimes. A copy of our current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at www.grimesco.com.
